IS IRAN NEXT?

The Safavids, the Ayatollahs, and the Fall of the Islamic Republic

It’s 1501, Tabriz. A 14-year-old kid who’s been hiding in the mountains his entire childhood suddenly rides into the capital at the head of 7,000 fanatical warriors wearing red turbans. This red-headed teenager named Ismail is the spiritual leader of a Sufi order called the Safavids. Ismail commands a tiny force of Turkmen cavalry who believe he is the Mahdi, the messiah, literally semi-divine. They throw themselves into battle unarmed because they think he has miraculous powers. Over the next few years, they fight battle after battle until they control all of what is modern-day Iran. He defeats the Uzbeks, kills their leader, and has his skull made into a bejeweled drinking cup. The divine invincibility thing seems confirmed.

Now freshly crowned as Shah Ismail, he establishes the Safavid dynasty, which rules Iran for 250 years, and restores the old name of the state (Iran means ‘land of the Aryans’). Historians consider this the start of modern Iranian history, where Iran is no longer an occupied Arab or Turkish or Mongolian province, but a sovereign Persian state.

Shah Ismail also issues his first decree: convert to Shi’ism or die. Indeed, Iran’s modern history starts….with a total theocracy, ruled over by a zealous messiah.

Iran at that point was 90 percent Sunni, so changing their religion was a tall order. Ismail did truly believe he was the Mehdi / Messiah, but he was no loony bin alumni. He was a deft politician. Ismail was executing the most coldly calculated geopolitical maneuver in Persian history. To the west, the massive Sunni Ottoman Empire. To the east, the Sunni Uzbeks. If Persia stays Sunni, it gets absorbed. The Ottomans have been swallowing Sunni territories like a particularly aggressive real estate developer.

But if Persia becomes Shi’a? If the state religion is theologically incompatible with both flanking empires? Then absorption becomes impossible. You can’t merge with an entity that considers your entire religious framework heretical. Religious difference equals political independence. It’s the same logic as European monarchs picking Protestant versus Catholic based on whose army was bigger during the Reformation, the vibes-based consensus that launched a thousand wars. Except Ismail actually believes it too. He was Machiavellian *and* sincere. The most dangerous kind of zealot, the kind that hears the voice of God and can also do math.